tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post6195140369663531740..comments2023-07-31T11:06:29.485+02:00Comments on Transition: The Spectre of PopulismD. Mario Nutihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17319653816487296802noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-3863996343062489222011-05-18T19:34:35.396+02:002011-05-18T19:34:35.396+02:00The elections are not over: there is a run-off in ...The elections are not over: there is a run-off in a fortnight in the larger cities where no candidate obtained at least 50% + 1 of the votes cast. So far the opposition did well. Berlusconi had turned the administrative elections into a referendum for him and his government; he actually stood in Milan where he was aiming at doubling the preference votes he got at the last elections, he got half instead. Of course now he is saying that there will be no implications for the national government. <br /><br />But should Berlusconi lose Milan, or Naples (to an ex-magistrate!), the Northern League might decide to cut its losses (it did much worse than expected), leave the government coalition and bring the legislature to an early end. <br /><br />An early election would make his return hard, though not impossible given the majority premium awarded by the current electoral law.D. Mario Nutihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17319653816487296802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-71980696944244475662011-05-18T19:09:43.444+02:002011-05-18T19:09:43.444+02:00Any after-thoughts on Italian populism after the a...Any after-thoughts on Italian populism after the administrative elections of 15-16 May?Jacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-56084261087706927822011-05-15T19:29:47.171+02:002011-05-15T19:29:47.171+02:00There are similarities: anti-immigration policies;...There are similarities: anti-immigration policies; tax reduction (TEA=Taxed Enough Already) and parallel expenditure cuts, especially welfare cuts (in the US opposition to Obama's health policy reform); protectionist leanings though in different forms (against foreign trade or against foreign capital); plus or minus anti-abortion, anti-euthanasia, anti-stem cells research etcetera.<br /><br />But you are right, there are differences. In the US it is primarily a middle class, mostly white, Christian, middle-age republican faction. In Eurome populism is more working-class oriented, and more broadly based both politically and socially.<br /><br />See Jérôme Fourquet and Sarah Alby, "Radiographie du Tea Party", Fondation Jean-Jaurès, Note n.91, May 2011. www.jean-jaures.org/content/download/15739/153136/version/4/.../91.pdfD. Mario Nutihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17319653816487296802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-61354034525527287172011-05-15T16:56:06.643+02:002011-05-15T16:56:06.643+02:00You seem to equate the rise of right-wing populism...You seem to equate the rise of right-wing populism in Europe with the Tea Party movement in the US. Are you sure they are the same thing?Arthurnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-82124197471260357162011-05-15T15:26:04.873+02:002011-05-15T15:26:04.873+02:00"Wherever Berlusconi has been for his elector..."Wherever Berlusconi has been for his electoral campaign he has reached a higher peak of vulgarity. Vulgarity has become his flag": Romano Prodi on Friday 14 May in Bologna, Piazza Maggiore, to rounds of applause by about ten thousand people.D. Mario Nutihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17319653816487296802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-60391460334358878512011-05-14T22:08:41.669+02:002011-05-14T22:08:41.669+02:00In the campaign for the Italian administrative ele...In the campaign for the Italian administrative elections of 15-16 May Berlusconi and his allies have exceeded any limits of decency and legality. <br /><br />Personal defamation of opponents through demonstrably false accusations (Moratti against Pisapia in Milan); shameless news manipulation and mud-slinging by corrupt journalists in their pay; incitements to withhold tax on refusal collection in Naples, or TV licence fees on alleged political bias by two RAI programmes – and simultaneous violation of the par conditio by all TV channels; promises to stop the demolition of illegal building and to legalise them... <br /><br />It might back-fire, of course, but then it might succeed. It is a mistery why the opposition has not used B.’s actual criminal record, or got rid of the “Impunito” long ago on the grounds of a macroscopic conflict of interests.D. Mario Nutihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17319653816487296802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-87440289060693332672011-05-13T19:41:50.386+02:002011-05-13T19:41:50.386+02:00“The Danes bring back border controls, France fear...“The Danes bring back border controls, France fears waves of refugees: Germany's neighbours have started to show rampant EU skepticism, but German attitudes toward Europe are no less alarming. A new study shows Germans from across the political spectrum are falling victim to right-wing populism.” See “German Voters and the Virus of the Right", by Jakob Augstein, http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,762224,00.html#ref=nlintD. Mario Nutihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17319653816487296802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-36981268471344369782011-05-07T09:08:27.604+02:002011-05-07T09:08:27.604+02:00"Left-wing populism or demagoguery is more li..."Left-wing populism or demagoguery is more likely to try to please the poor and the middle-classes by promising to deliver something that is unsustainable over the medium-term (Mario´s point 2)."<br /><br />Why do you brand all left populism as demagoguery? Both left and right populism have their substantive populisms and their faux "populisms." The faux "populisms" are demagoguery.<br /><br />For example, in Russia Peace meant bailing out on WWI, Land meant redistributing land to the peasants, Bread meant feeding workers in the cities, Workers Control meant developing a popular accounting apparatus. The second and fourth were the easiest to achieve, followed by the first. The third was by far the most difficult one to achieve.<br /><br />"To be sure, left-wing populism also uses scapegoating (the rich often play that role) but in a less systematic way."<br /><br />"Scapegoating" led to independent working-class political organization in the late 19th century, while cozying to liberalism did squat. Read into "one reactionary mass."<br /><br />"Thus, I tend to see left-wing populism of Papandreou or Chavez as demagoguery"<br /><br />Papandreou is a faux "populist." Chavez, however, isn't a demagogue. Participatory budgeting, communal councils, communes, capital controls, economic works councils, etc. are not the hallmarks of demagogues.Jacob Richterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13595821621256547971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-49658769064971855352011-05-05T10:02:46.897+02:002011-05-05T10:02:46.897+02:00An excellent article on Hungarian political and ec...An excellent article on Hungarian political and economic developments, by Janos Kornai, was published in the January 6 issue of NÉPSZABADSÁG; it is available in English, “Taking Stock”, at http://nol.hu/gazdasag/janos_kornai__taking_stock. Highly recommended. <br /><br />His summary: <br /><br />“What has been happening in the political sphere is easy to summarize. Several important basic institutions of democracy have been destroyed. Hungary has become an autocracy. The Hungarian political regime is threatening to resemble Putin’s. The direction of the changes is clear: they are profound enough to be irreversible (or more optimistically, almost irreversible) and guarantee (or more optimistically, almost guarantee) the long-lasting rule of the group that has gained power.”<br /><br />“What has been going on in the economic sphere is less easy to describe briefly, because it is full of mutually contradictory actions, regulations impossible to implement, and tendencies impossible to follow. There is no clear direction in the new rules. Let us hope that capitalism is a strong enough system to survive bad economic policy. It is indeed, but it charges a high price for weaknesses.” <br /><br />“In the political sphere, the Machiavellian aim (grasping power and retaining it for a long time) has been attained in a masterful way. The plan was clear and definite. Obstacles encountered have been removed without delay or hesitation.”<br /><br />“As far as the economy is concerned, I have not really been able to discern what the aim is. It seems as if there may not have been any detailed plans to implement. According to government pronouncements, we may in a few months’ time be informed of the plans for “structural reforms,” and then be in a position to understand the aims of the economic policy. But whatever the aims may be, they have been bungled in their implementation.”<br /><br />“We have every reason to be worried about the future of this country.”D. Mario Nutihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17319653816487296802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-19697841025722680922011-05-04T22:04:01.840+02:002011-05-04T22:04:01.840+02:00I asked my good friend Vladimir Popov - a frequent...I asked my good friend Vladimir Popov - a frequent guest on this Blog - whether he regarded Putin and Medvedev as populists. <br /><br />His answer may be of general interest: "It is Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who is a populist and a nationalist. He supports the "Russia for Russians" slogan (explaining though that "Russians" are all citizens of Russia, not ethnic Russians). And the slogan is supported by over 50% of the Russians, but not by Putin and Medvedev." <br /><br />The chart on the % of those supporting "Russia for the Russians" can be found at: http://www.res.ethz.ch/analysis/rad/details.cfm?lng=en&id=127703.D. Mario Nutihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17319653816487296802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-61970074131418749562011-05-04T10:33:43.260+02:002011-05-04T10:33:43.260+02:00Thanks, Branko, for a very important and most dist...Thanks, Branko, for a very important and most disturbing qualification.D. Mario Nutihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17319653816487296802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-71067076743532742192011-05-03T15:32:59.557+02:002011-05-03T15:32:59.557+02:00Alberto is right that there is left-wing as well a...Alberto is right that there is left-wing as well as right-wing populism. There are, however, differences in the implications and operations of the two.<br /><br />Left-wing populism or demagoguery is more likely to try to please the poor and the middle-classes by promising to deliver something that is unsustainable over the medium-term (Mario´s point 2). <br /><br />Right-wing populism, which is sweeping Europe now is, in my opinion, much more malignant. It not only promises undeliverable or mutually incompatible things, but needs a scapegoat. <br /><br />To be sure, left-wing populism also uses scapegoating (the rich often play that role) but in a less systematic way. But it seems to me that right-wing populism cannot even be imagined without having somebody to pin the blame on. Moreover, in right-wing populisms, that other who is blamed is generally somebody weak, and thus unlikely to be able to respond in kind. (The rich, in contrast, are not exactly without means to counter the left-wing populism.) <br /><br />Thus, I tend to see left-wing populism of Papandreou or Chavez as demagoguery, and right-wing populism of Orban or ¨True Finns” as ante-chamber to fascism.Brankonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-89481253164695665372011-05-02T18:08:49.151+02:002011-05-02T18:08:49.151+02:00Very scaring but unfortunally, very true!!!
I'...Very scaring but unfortunally, very true!!!<br />I've always thought that what was going on in Italy was possible because of the very bad culture and low education of the italian population made even worst by the junk-culture spread around by the media since the '80ies (private TV channels, magazines, newspapers and State TV channels). I have always thougth that the Northern European Countries had a much more advanced civilization and democracy. But as you have clearly evidenciate, they also are moving towards an obtuse and shortsighted political scenario.<br />I feel very short of hope at the moment and I start to think that probably the very nature of the human being, egoism and selfishness, will always prevail. And by doing this people make the fortune of a few and the distruction of all the others!!!!<br />I am using my voice, but more and more often I am seen as a very "naive" person!<br />MarilenaMarilena Giannettinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-7164414503072841262011-05-02T10:52:34.636+02:002011-05-02T10:52:34.636+02:00You said it, Mario.
I still feel quite a degree ...You said it, Mario. <br /><br />I still feel quite a degree of disbelief to think that so many Finns fell for the cheap-n-easy vote. In the breakdown of the voting statistics they are finding that those who voted for the populist party are mainly from the more rural areas. Votes from the three larger cities (Helsinki, Turku, Tampere) were predominantly liberal or social democrats. And as a footnote, in the translation of the populist party name from Finnish to English, something critical was lost: a more exact translation is ‘Basic Finns’. That doesn’t really need much analysis…Lorrainenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-15716823170103760112011-05-01T23:22:08.120+02:002011-05-01T23:22:08.120+02:00The European Left needs clear heads like various M...The European Left needs clear heads like various Marxist thinkers of Socialism of the 21st Century, populist appeal like that of Hugo Chavez and Oskar Lafontaine, and commitment to institutional organization like the German model before WWI.<br /><br />BTW, there's a difference between substantive populism (check out Die Linke's draft program), of popularizing "academic" policies (Kalecki, Minsky, and Meidner, for instance), and cheap faux "populism" (price controls, tariffs, anti-immigration).Jacob Richterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13595821621256547971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-18654273661752526342011-05-01T23:21:26.476+02:002011-05-01T23:21:26.476+02:00"Tommaso Padoa Schioppa's fiscal squeeze...."Tommaso Padoa Schioppa's fiscal squeeze. TPS chose a strategy of fiscal austerity in the first years in government, so as to benefit from later relaxation closer to the elections"<br /><br />I don't think TPS had the political cycle in mind. What he did was a measured continuation of the policy of gradual reduction of the mountain of Italian public debt which has been the responsible policy of the governments of the Left in Italy since the first Prodi government, and which unfortunately was interrupted by the Berlusconi government between 2004 and 2006, when the Debt/GDP ratio increased from 103.8 to 106.5. TPS reduced the ratio in 2007 to 103.5, a very responsible policy, in particular seen from the hinsight of the subsequent international financial and economic crisis whose fiscal consequences have raised the ratio to 115.8 in 2009. This has brought Italy in the group of Piigs, making an attack on the Italian fiscal position not unlikely and the financing of the debt more onerous. Had the same responsible stand been taken by Tremonti before TPS the Italian fiscal situation would have been better and the risk premium on our debt lower allowing at the same time some fiscal compensation for the fall in aggregate demand during the depth of the crisis.Alberto Chilosihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12396350222780208837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-6159046878299440812011-05-01T22:15:56.807+02:002011-05-01T22:15:56.807+02:00Sure, Alberto, populism can also belong to the lef...Sure, Alberto, populism can also belong to the left. Gordon Brown's fiscal policy was definitely populist. The fall of Prodi's government was the result of left populism on the part of his allies, but his electoral defeat was probably affected by the late Tommaso Padoa Schioppa's fiscal squeeze. TPS chose a strategy of fiscal austerity in the first years in government, so as to benefit from later relaxation closer to the elections. Except that the government fell too early, and such simple-minded strategy came unstuck. A very small dose of populism would not have hurt Prodi. Quite the contrary. <br /><br />Yes, Alice, you are right. Italy suffers from a tight, long-standing, deep interconnection between politics and organised crime, both nationally and in the regions,South North and Centre. This is a lamentable and most depressing feature of Italian politics, though fortunately the fight against organised crime is the responsibility not of the government but of police, cabinieri and magistrates.D. Mario Nutihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17319653816487296802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-47286861988715227512011-05-01T21:14:57.493+02:002011-05-01T21:14:57.493+02:00Dear Mario
your post on “The Spectre of Populism” ...Dear Mario<br />your post on “The Spectre of Populism” is an appropriate description of common deviations of societies from the route of progress. Unfortunately, though, it is not a good picture of Italy where since 20 years the organised crime reins in society under the veil of political leadership. <br /><br />The incessant criminal power of the Italian political leadership is based upon the full consent of the Italian "uncivil" society that stipulates with it ignominious pacts with the aim at sharing the underlying profits.<br /><br />The dissent is punished by civil death, unemployment and poverty. Marginalisation is your destiny if your attitude does not imply fierce action, corruption and violence. The society is primitive. It remains folded out, incapable of any kind of progress.<br /><br />Regards,<br />Alice from WonderlandAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8732662769765511163.post-23298522297779940312011-05-01T19:26:53.002+02:002011-05-01T19:26:53.002+02:00In part populism of the Right is the consequence o...In part populism of the Right is the consequence of populism of the Left: the two are mutually reinforcing. Populism of the Left (but also of the Right such as in Greece) would pay no heed to budget constraints: in Italy the last Prodi government fell (whatever the apparences) because the Left of the coalition insisted to increase public expenditures in a way the would have made the public debt unsustainable. But the basic reason why social strata that in the past would vote for the Communists or other parties of the Left vote presently for the Northern League is the populist policy towards immigration opposing every effective measure to bring it under control, such as the Turco Napolitano law which came too late, vocally opposed by the populist Left advocating in practice unrestricted immigration. As a matter of fact in many cases (in France, in the Netherlands, in Scandinavia) the surge of right populism and para-fascist parties has probably been induced by the socially destabilizing impact of immigration processes too sudden and uncontrolled. As to Hungary part of the responsibility for the present para-fascist regime may be assigned to the lamentable performance of the socialists before, and their populist policies paying no attention to the sustainability of public finances, and lying about their true situation, in the same way as the populist Right did in Greece.Alberto Chilosihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12396350222780208837noreply@blogger.com