Be Careful What You Wish For

Note: An Italian translation of this post (not revised by the author) has been published by vocidallestero.it , I am grateful to them and to the many readers who twitted and ri-twitted this post, as well as those who expressed their support on Facebook (where I have an account that I do not manage well). All this gave this post an extraordinary diffusion. Thanks also to all those who offered comments: I would rather readers commented directly on the Blog rather than to me via e-mail, in which case I might post their comments under initials or a made-up pseudonym or ask for their permission to enter their name (DMN) .

Indro Montanelli (1909-2001), the prestigious Italian journalist and writer, on many occasions expressed great contempt for Silvio Berlusconi, his character and politics. Yet in 2001 Montanelli declared in an interview: “I want him to win, I make vows and give pledges to the Madonna for him to win, so that Italians will see who this man is. Berlusconi is a disease that is cured only by vaccination, with a good injection of Berlusconi in government [a Palazzo Chigi]; Berlusconi as President of Italy [al Quirinale], Berlusconi wherever he wants to be, Berlusconi at the Vatican. Only afterwards will we be immune. The immunity that is obtained through vaccination” (La Repubblica, 26 March 2001[1]).

In the 13 May 2001 elections the first part of Montanelli’s wishes came true: Berlusconi and his allies obtained an absolute majority in both Houses of Parliament. 

Montanelli should have been more careful what he wished for. His verdict on the man was correct: the lower and the appeal courts in Milan in 2012 and 2013 convicted Berlusconi of fiscal fraud. The four year sentence was later reduced to one year and three months, which he never served by virtue of being over 70, but deprived him of political rights for two years until 2019. 

"He is the most sincere liar I know, for he is the first to believe in his own lies”, Montanelli had said;  he got away with a gigantic conflict of interest (with the complicity of the Left); Marco Travaglio, B. come Basta, Paperfirst, 2018, recounts how he run the country.

But otherwise Montanelli had been utterly and tragically wrong: the Italian electorate, who had already a short exposure to Berlusconi in 1994-95 and repeated large doses of vaccine with his governments in 2001-05 and 2008-11, still seems inclined to make his coalition the favourite to win the elections of 4 March 2018.

Despite Montanelli's mistaken prognosis and cure, I venture a similar wish, though in different circumstances, with respect to other parties and for different reasons.

At present there is a false, self-styled social-democratic Left, justifying itself by pretending to defend the interests of working people while destroying their life chances with their hyper-liberal, austerian and globalist policies, promoting no-border movements of capital and labour, de-regulation, privatisation, the destruction of the welfare state and unprecedented inequality of income and wealth. 

Inevitably a two steps (at least) process is required to get rid of this false Left and open the Left again to being the representative of working people, of fairness, of the admittance of workers' organisations into governance, of preventing falling wages and mass unemployment, of strengthening the welfare state in all its manifestations, from education to decent health and pensions as well as its current, defective, merely safety-net functions.

If this analysis is correct, Italian socialists and socialdemocrats should vote for the centre-Right, from Noi con Italia-UDC, to Lega, to Forza Italia. They are going to win anyway this time. It is better that they should win well, preventing any attempt by the state to put the country through the repellent mess Napolitano concocted in 2011 and 2013, that has led to five years of illicit and incompetent governance and to the collapse of a proper Left position and Party.

If the Centre-Right governs well then the Left will have breathing space to construct a proper programme, a democratic Party structure, and consolidate its electorate.  They must at least step back from the caricature of the Left of Grasso, Boldrini, and old men like Bersani.  And get rid of all the contemptible collusion in corruption from Rignano sull’Arno and Laterina.  

The Centre-Right might govern well, for many of the programme elements proposed by the current Centre-Right coalition should be in a programme of the Left: lower taxes on earned income; controls on economic immigration into Italy; new relations with the  EU; a revision of Eurozone regulation and management; easing of regulation destructive of providing housing; security at home; defence of Italian interests at international level, etc., etc.  Indeed it is a shame that these issues are not part of the Left manifesto, or indeed of the so-called Lefts' many manifestos. 

A reshuffling of voters characterised by these values should be pursued and implemented, which is very different from an unholy Grosse Koalition of opposite approaches and interests held together exclusively by the pursuit of and for the maintenance of political power against democratic processes.

And if the Centre-Right fails to deliver then we return to vote again (which I believe we will) but this time, with the second step, the second consultation of the people, we can hope to have a real Left to vote for.  The 'Progressive' class and national traitors can stand on their own platform, and not as the pretend Left that is all that is on offer this time.

Dixi et salvavi animam meam.

Berlusconi Is Ineligible

In an article in Sole-24 Ore of Sunday 26 May 2013 (Ineleggibilità e Democrazia dei Partiti: Le ragioni legali che i saggi non svelano) Giuliano Amato adds his voice to those such as Valerio Onida, Luciano Violante, and now no less than the new leader of the PD, Gugliemo Epifani, who oppose the notion of Silvio Berlusconi's non-elegibility to Parliament, alleged by many on the ground of his conflict of interest as beneficiary of economically significant TV concessions by the State. 

The eminent jurist and statesman rejects the argument used by others that, since the relevant legislation has not been invoked for twenty years, it cannot begin to be applied now. It would be like arguing, he writes, that, if a serial killer has not been condemned for his first six murders, he should be acquitted once he is caught for his seventh murder. The trouble, Amato argues, is that the Electoral law of 1957, which is still in force, is not as clear-cut as the law on murder.  That law declares ineligible, among others, "those who on their own account [in proprio] or as legal representatives of companies or enterprises are involved with the State by concessions or administrative authorisations of considerable economic significance [in qualità di rappresentanti legali di società o di imprese risultino vincolati con lo Stato per concessioni o autorizzazioni amministrative di notevole entità economica]...".  Berlusconi, argues Amato - as has Valerio Onida, a former President of the Constitutional Court and one of Napolitano's "wise Men" - is neither the legal representative of such a company, nor a direct concessionary, even though he is the uncontested main shareholder, the "boss, l`ideatore e il regista".  According to the Italian Constitution, norms that limit any rights cannot be interpreted extensively, for in that case the hostility towards laws ad personam would be replaced by a peculiar predilection for interpretations ad personam.  Therefore, Amato concludes, Parliament was right in applying , on purely legal and not on political grounds, a literal interpretation of the law. If main shareholders of concessionary companies were intended to be ineligible an amendment to that effect should have been approved beforehand; many such amendments were presented over the years but, for better or worse, were never approved. 

Amato explains that in his approach he is giving voice to his own "jurist's soul".  By the same token, let me voice my own "economist's soul" on this matter. 

A shareholder holding a 100% share in a company that is granted an economically significant State concession is literally undistinguishable to all intents and purposes from a person holding such a concession on his own account.  The application of inelegibility to a 100% shareholder in such a company would not violate either the spirit or the letter of the law.

At the other end of the range of conflicts of interest specified by the law, a legal representative of a company that enjoys the same state concession will have a significantly reduced interest in that concession, with respect to a 100% shareholder, and therefore a reduced conflict of interest.  In fact such a legal representative would benefit from the concession only if, and to the extent that, his compensation is enhanced by the company profitability contributed by the concession. This could happen, for instance, through bonuses related to company performance, or through the allocation of company shares and/or options on favourable terms.  Let us say that the legal representative has a conflict of interest with the State equivalent to that of a shareholder holding x% of company shares, where that x% can and normally does represent a minor shareholding fraction in the company in question.

The position of a major shareholder in a company that is granted a significant State concession is clearly intermediate between that of a concessionary on his own account (or of a 100% shareholder in a concessionary company) and that of a legal representative whose benefit is a small fraction of the concession profitability.  Therefore the ineligibility of a major shareholder in a concessionary company is not in any sense an "extensive interpretation" of a rule to a different category of subjects for which that rule was originally intended, violating the Constitution, but simply an "inclusive interpretation" that applies the same rule not only to the extreme cases contemplated by the law but also to cases intermediate between the extremes. As if the law punishing serial murder and maiming by shooting was also applied to serial murder by strangulation.

Some might regard my argument as casuistic, indeed jesuitical. Anybody who might think so should consider that the same contention could be raised against a literal interpretation of the rule that glosses over the macroscopic conflict of interest that Silvio Berlusconi has enjoyed for the last twenty years.